Ahmad Doli Kurnia T. testifying as a witness for the Relevant Party at a 2024 presidential election results disputes hearing, Thursday (4/4/2024). Photo by MKRI/Teguh.
JAKARTA (MKRI) — The Constitutional Court (MK) held another evidentiary hearing on the 2024 presidential election results disputes (presidential PHPU). The hearing for case No. 2/PHPU.PRES-XXII/2024 took place on Thursday, April 4, 2024 in the plenary courtroom. The agenda was to hear experts and witnesses presented by Presidential Ticket 02 Prabowo Subianto-Gibran Rakabuming Raka (Prabowo–Gibran) as the Relevant Party of the case. In the second and third sessions of today’s hearing, Prabowo-Gibran presented Hasan Nasbi and Muhammad Qodari as experts as well as Ahmad Doli Kurnia T., Supriyanto, R. Gani Muhammad, Andi Batara Lifu, TB. H. Ace Hasan Syadzily, and Abdul Wachid as witnesses.
Hasan Nasbi argued that there is little correlation between social assistance (bansos) and the election of incumbent candidates, only 0.29. In fact, he observed that exit poll results were not much different from quick count results and calculations by the General Elections Commission (KPU).
“We can all assess [candidates’] electability from [votes by] social assistance recipients, whether [the social assistance] can describe votes for the incumbent candidate from these recipients. The correlation coefficient between Jokowi’s approval rating and votes for Prabowo-Gibran is only 0.024. So, there is no correlation between social assistance and the electability of Candidate Pair 02. It is minuscule, even almost nonexistent,” the political researcher and consultant asserted.
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Analysis of Social Assistance Effect
Political analyst and researcher Muhammad Qodari illustrated that the effect of social assistance in Indonesia can be analyzed in a systematic manner by analyzing voters’ attitude and non-systematically by presumptions. Overall, the analysis on voters’ attitude in the 2024 presidential election can be done by descriptive, correlation, and regression statistical analysis.
“Through regression analysis in scientific research, a clearer understanding of the impact of social assistance can be attained. Findings by the Indonesian Indicator Survey indicate a higher proportion of voters for Candidate Pair 02 who do not receive social assistance. Consequently, individuals’ choices for presidential candidates are influenced by specific attributes. This principle extends to phenomena such as money politics or vote buying, highlighting the absence of a direct correlation between financial contributions and candidate selection, particularly in the context of monetary social protection,” he explained.
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Determination of Interim Regional Heads
Meanwhile, Witnesses Ahmad Doli Kurnia T., Supriyanto, R. Gani Muhammad, and Andi Batara Lifu appeared before the constitutional justices to provide testimony on the alleged involvement of interim regional heads in securing victory for Prabowo-Gibran in the 2024 presidential election. Ahmad Doli Kurnia T., a member of the House of Representatives (DPR) representing the Golkar (Functional Groups Party) faction, elucidated that the establishment of the policy regarding the appointment of interim regional heads was grounded in Law No. 10 of 2016. He further articulated that following the 2020 election, there will be regional election silence until the simultaneous election in November 2024. Consequently, in accordance with this regulation, the regional heads appointed as a result of the 2017 and 2018 regional elections must conclude their terms of office by 2022 and 2023, respectively.
“Henceforth, to oversee the forthcoming administration, it is imperative to designate interim heads of regions. Outlined in the 1945 Constitution, the government assumes the role of law executor, thus it shall conduct its affairs in strict adherence to legal mandates. Notably, House Commission II duly acknowledged civic aspirations voiced in mid-2022, advocating for the establishment of technical protocols governing the appointment of interim regional leaders in compliance with the Constitutional Court Decision No. 15/PUU-XX/2022, which was formulated by the Minister of Home Affairs in Government Regulation (PP) No. 4 of 2023. As per the prevailing regulations, the selection process for interim leadership adhered to the provisions in Law No. 10 of 2016,” Ahmad Doli explained.
House Commission II member Supriyanto, who is a legislative candidate for East Java District 7, also said that following the appointment of the interim regional heads, there was minimal unrest within the community, and no instances of rejection. The governmental operations proceeded smoothly, facilitated by the adept preparation of a regional action plan to facilitate the forthcoming 2024 regional election. Based on his observation, he said, Candidate Pair 02 garnered the highest number of votes in 36 out of 38 regencies/cities, while Candidate Pair 01 secured victory in two regencies/cities. However, Candidate Pair 03 failed to secure victory in East Java Province.
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No Partisanship
Next, R. Gani Muhammad, interim mayor of Bekasi, provided clarification regarding interim regional heads appointed by the Ministry of Home Affairs on September 20, 2023. As an interim mayor, Gani is prohibited from making any changes to the state civil apparatuses (ASN) or issuing or revoking licenses previously authorized by the former heads of regions.
“As for partisanship, there was no order to ensure the victory of any candidate pairs. Our approach to our duties, since we did not have any political interest, is normative in the development of Bekasi City,” he explained.
Then, Director of Regional Head and Regional Representatives Council Facilities of the Directorate-General of Regional Autonomy of the Ministry of Home Affairs Andi Batara Lifu explained his duty to formulate policy and monitor regional heads. He explained that interim officials were appointed into the vacancies of regional heads.
“The main requirements of this are set out in the law and for candidates for governor, for example, begin with a letter to the Provincial DPRD, which then goes through a number of stages set out in the law,” Batara said to the constitutional justices.
Disbursement of Social Aid
In his testimony as a witness, vice chair of House Commission VIII TB. H. Ace Hasan Syadzily explained the planning, budgeting, and disbursement of social assistance. He explained the difference between social protection (perlinsos) and social assistance (bansos). Social protection is divided into including Program Keluarga Harapan (PKH, Family Hope Program) by the Ministry of Social Affairs, the Program Indonesia Pintar (PIP) scholarship by the Ministry of Education and Culture and the Ministry of Religious Affairs, and direct cash assistance (BLT) for village funds supervised by the Ministry of Villages, Development of Disadvantaged Regions, and Transmigration.
“From this data, it is possible to distinguish between direct social assistance, subsidies, and social security. This has been discussed in accordance with the applicable provisions,” Ace said.
Abdul Wachid made a similar statement. Every time members of House Commission VIII provide social assistance to the regions, they are invited by the Ministry of Social Affairs to hand over assistance to the villages. This has been going on since 2021.
“With the assistance to the regions, there is no electoral impact. For example, in the House Commission VIII, out of 51 members, only 21 qualified for the House, while the others were not reelected. This means that social assistance did not make an impact on the presidential election,” Wachid revealed.
Author : Sri Pujianti
Editor : Nur R.
Translator : Yuniar Widiastuti (RA)
Disclaimer: The original version of the news is in Indonesian. In case of any differences between the English and the Indonesian versions, the Indonesian version will prevail.
Thursday, April 04, 2024 | 21:47 WIB 270